Wednesday, September 22, 2010

The US-Dollar Is Resuming It's Downtrend

The two first Charts below are showing the USDCHF cross over different time frames. To get a long term perspective of this currency pair, I plotted the monthly chart since 1992. For the past 2 years, the USDCHF cross rate is displaying a huge Flag, which in fact is a trend continuation pattern. This currency pair will test the all-time low of 0.9790 in the coming days.


USDCHF: A fresh new sell signal in the daily time-frame



The question is, if it can hold the all-time lows. An answer for a short term move could give us the daily price structure of the EURUSD cross rate. The Euro broke to the upside against the US-Dollar at 1.3230. The Point&Figure chart will confirm the break-out, once we are trading above 1.3405. The technical picture for the US-Dollar deteriorated sharply after markets started to expect more quantitative easing by the FED.




Looking at the current technical set-up, we can expect acceleration to the downside for the US-Dollar once the Euro is confirming its break out against the USD and the Swissi has made a new all-time low. Last but not least, Elliott Wave's Prechter says he is bullish on the US Dollar. Maybe we are trading in the 5th. wave... Time will tell.

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